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Thorp's five count strategy
Edward Thorp, you may remember, was the
author of the computer program that allowed the composition
of the remaining deck to be carefully analysed as certain
cards were removed from play.
He proved that the removal from the deck of all the
5s in a single-deck game resulted in a 3.6% player advantage
over the dealer. In a single-deck game, he suggested
that in order for a player to range their bets more
accurately, they should take note of how many 5s remained
to be dealt.
After all 5s have been removed, Thorp suggests that
a player should adopt a modified basic strategy. Modifications
include: standing with 15 against a dealer’s 9
and 10, and standing with 12 against all dealer’s
stiff cards. He recommended that in addition, a player
should stand with three or more cards that total 16,
against a dealer’s 7 or 8.
Despite it’s effectiveness, critics of this system
have noted that it fails to account for too many possible
changes. Firstly, when no 5s are left, a player must
range their bets far more drastically in order to take
full advantage of the situation.
Secondly, this system tends to be far less effective
in shoe games, since the removal of such an insignificant
number of cards, affects the composition of the deck
to a far lesser extent.
In addition, Thorpe’s system provides the player
with little insight into the order in which the 10-value
cards will arrive.

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