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Thorps Five Count Strategy
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Thorp's five count strategy

Edward Thorp, you may remember, was the author of the computer program that allowed the composition of the remaining deck to be carefully analysed as certain cards were removed from play.

He proved that the removal from the deck of all the 5s in a single-deck game resulted in a 3.6% player advantage over the dealer. In a single-deck game, he suggested that in order for a player to range their bets more accurately, they should take note of how many 5s remained to be dealt.

After all 5s have been removed, Thorp suggests that a player should adopt a modified basic strategy. Modifications include: standing with 15 against a dealer’s 9 and 10, and standing with 12 against all dealer’s stiff cards. He recommended that in addition, a player should stand with three or more cards that total 16, against a dealer’s 7 or 8.

Despite it’s effectiveness, critics of this system have noted that it fails to account for too many possible changes. Firstly, when no 5s are left, a player must range their bets far more drastically in order to take full advantage of the situation.

Secondly, this system tends to be far less effective in shoe games, since the removal of such an insignificant number of cards, affects the composition of the deck to a far lesser extent.

In addition, Thorpe’s system provides the player with little insight into the order in which the 10-value cards will arrive.

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Sunday, August 01, 2010

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