Thorp’s point count system

This system, first published in Thorp’s second edition of beat the dealer, has subsequently formed the basis for the vast majority of all other systems. With the aid of Braun’s sophisticated computer programs, Thorp calculated that the player’s advantage was greatest when the lower ranking cards (2,3,4,5 & 6) had been removed from the deck.

To illustrate Thorp’s point, let us take a hypothetical extreme in which the deck consists only of Aces and 10-value cards. The following is a list of potential hands that a player may receive in such a situation.

1. A 10 & 10 against a dealers Ace is a no-lose hand for the player. If a player takes insurance and the dealer has a Blackjack, the player would win only even money. If the dealer does not have a Blackjack, the splitting potential of this hand means the player will win big.
2. When a player has a Blackjack against the dealers Ace, a sure win would be guaranteed by settling for even money. If the player wishes to hold out far a 3 to 2 payoff the least they can expect is a push.
3. By taking insurance when the player has two Aces against the dealers Ace, the player is guaranteed to at least break even.
4. When split and re-split, a players two 10s against a dealers 10 represents a number of potential 21s for the player (providing the dealer does not draw another Ace). If the dealer draws a Blackjack the player would only lose their original wager.
5. If both the player and the dealer have a natural it will result in a push, thereby costing the player nothing.

The wisdom of risking more money in a situation like this is obvious. Also obvious is the extent to which Aces and 10-value cards are vital to a player’s success.

On account of both its innovativeness and simplicity, Thorp’s system remains relevant, practical and attractive even today. The application of this system involves counting each card as seen and giving it either a positive or negative count i.e., the low cards (2,3,4,5 & 6) each count as +1, and the high cards (10,J,Q,K & Ace) count as –1. The 7,8 & 9 are considered neutral.

By memorising a single number at a time the player will always know whom the odds favour. A positive point count represents odds in favour of the player while a negative point count favours the house.

It is when the odds favour the player that they would be wise to play more aggressively. When high cards remain to be dealt, the player should stand, double and split more than they would when playing in accordance with normal basic strategy.

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